Appendices
Appendix 1 - Summary of planning assumptions and risks
|
Heading |
Planning assumptions used in budget setting |
Risks |
|
Employee costs |
The staffing budgets have been formulated on existing service delivery models. The current working assumption is that pay inflation will be 2%. No increases in national insurance contributions are anticipated. The increase of £0.3m in respect of employer contributions to the Local Government Pension Scheme will be managed through ongoing efficiencies. It is assumed that the increases to the employer contributions to the firefighters pension scheme will continue to be grant funded by the Welsh Government.
|
The National Joint Council (NJC) has not yet reached agreement on the firefighter pay award for the period 2017/18. The Joint Negotiating Committee for Local Authorities has not yet published proposals for the 2020/21 pay award. The budget planning assumes normal levels of activity. If spate conditions occur budget pressures will be experienced. The working assumption is that the General Fund would be utilised in the first instance. The Welsh Government has not yet confirmed that the grant to support the increase in employer contributions for the firefighter pension scheme will continue. The costs for 2020/21 are estimated to be £1.3m. In December 2018, the government lost its appeal to the legal challenge of the transitional pension arrangements for firefighters. The matter will now revert to an Employment Tribunal for rectification. The financial outcome is unknown and no provision has been made. Following the public inquiry into the Grenfell tragedy there may be changes to building regulations and associated responsibilities. It is not yet known how these may impact on the fire and rescue sector and no provision has been made. |
|
Non Pay |
Non pay budgets have remained unchanged for a number of years and cost pressures have been mitigated through savings. The initial planning assessment was for this strategy to largely continue with a modest increase. Due to ongoing unavoidable costs pressures which include the rise in fuel costs, backlog maintenance, national non domestic rates, insurance and utilities a budget increase of 6.5% is proposed. Residual costs pressures will continue to be met from cost management across this heading. |
Whilst the Service continues to review non-pay costs and strives to manage cost pressures within the planned budget this remains an area of risk due to ongoing pressures within the area of information technology. In particular, the national procurement of an Emergency Services Network has been delayed and the existing contract extended. The assumption is that the current revenue support received from the Welsh Government of £0.4m will continue although this has not yet been confirmed. The exit from the European Union remains an area of uncertainty across the economy. No provision has been made within the budget for cost increases arising from inflation or exchange rate risks. In the short term the General Reserve would be utilised although this would not be sustainable in the longer term. The outcome from the consultation on the development of an Environmental Strategy may give rise to additional expenditure. No costs have currently been factored into the base budget for 2020/21. |
|
Capital Financing |
The original planning assessment included a capital programme for 2019/20 of £3.1m resulting in a capital financing requirement of £3.3m. The capital programme has been revised and the current forecast is a capital financing requirement of £2.8m with the reduction being used to fund the cost pressures arising in non-pay. |
The potential increase in interest rates is unknown and may exceed planning assumptions. |
|
Income |
Income budgets have been reviewed and set in line with previous years. |
No specific risks have been identified. |
Appendix 2 Medium Term Financial Strategy 2020/2023 - Revenue
|
2019/20 |
2019/20 |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
|
|
Budget £ |
Projection £ |
Draft Budget £ |
Forecast £ |
Forecast £ |
|
|
Chief Officers |
691,854 |
676,313 |
656,127 |
669,250 |
682,635 |
|
Response, Protection and Prevention |
22,095,245 |
21,811,786 |
22,470,804 |
22,920,220 |
23,378,624 |
|
Corporate |
2,777,677 |
2,786,067 |
2,761,274 |
2,816,500 |
2,872,830 |
|
Other employee costs |
429,659 |
469,659 |
445,390 |
454,298 |
463,384 |
|
Pension costs (exc. employer contributions) |
1,181,700 |
1,188,600 |
1,322,500 |
1,366,710 |
1,412,164 |
|
Total Employee Costs |
27,176,135 |
26,932,425 |
27,656,095 |
28,226,977 |
28,809,636 |
|
Premises |
2,242,696 |
2,532,696 |
2,328,476 |
2,375,045 |
2,422,546 |
|
Transport |
1,019,556 |
1,037,556 |
1,040,608 |
1,092,638 |
1,147,270 |
|
Supplies and Services |
4,178,829 |
4,356,829 |
4,450,375 |
4,539,383 |
4,630,171 |
|
Third Party Payments |
416,740 |
416,740 |
425,095 |
433,597 |
442,268 |
|
Total Non Pay Expenditure |
7,857,821 |
8,343,821 |
8,244,553 |
8,440,663 |
8,642,255 |
|
Fees and Charges/Misc Income |
-456,788 |
-467,434 |
-399,570 |
-399,570 |
-399,570 |
|
Grant Income |
-2,395,244 |
-2,395,244 |
-2,395,244 |
-2,395,244 |
-2,395,244 |
|
Total Income |
-2,852,032 |
-2,862,678 |
-2,794,814 |
-2,794,814 |
-2,794,814 |
|
Capital Financing and Interest Charges |
3,055,188 |
2,823,544 |
2,836,020 |
3,201,411 |
3,424,801 |
|
Budget requirement |
35,237,112 |
35,237,112 |
35,941,854 |
37,074,237 |
38,081,879 |
|
Increase in Budget |
2% |
3% |
3% |
Appendix 3 Medium Term Financial Strategy 2020/2023 – Capital
|
2019/20 Budget
£ |
2019/20 Estimated Outturn £ |
2020/21 Proposed rollover and Budget £ |
2021/22 Forecast
£ |
2022/23 Forecast
£ |
||
|
Department |
Description |
|||||
|
Fleet |
Replacement vehicles and appliances |
191,000 |
180,000 |
1,306,000 |
1,255,000 |
1,355,000 |
|
Operations |
PPE kit and operational equipment |
30,000 |
0 |
944,682 |
30,000 |
30,000 |
|
Facilities |
Building upgrades |
878,000 |
703,950 |
1,194,000 |
2,000,000 |
850,000 |
|
ICT/Control |
System upgrades and associated works |
953,649 |
614,385 |
644,130 |
400,000 |
750,000 |
|
Proposed Capital Allocation |
2,052,649 |
1,498,335 |
4,088,812 |
3,685,000 |
2,985,000 |
Appendix 4 – Constituent Local Authority Contributions 2020/21
|
Authority |
2019/2020 Contribution |
Population |
Population % |
2020/2021 Projected* £ |
Increase in contributions £ |
Increase % |
|
Conwy County Borough Council |
5,875,914 |
117,223 |
17% |
5,988,521 |
112,607 |
1.9% |
|
Anglesey County Council |
3,522,798 |
70,169 |
10% |
3,584,694 |
61,896 |
1.7% |
|
Gwynedd Council |
6,226,618 |
124,426 |
18% |
6,356,498 |
129,880 |
2.0% |
|
Denbighshire County Council |
4,805,681 |
95,931 |
14% |
4,900,786 |
95,105 |
1.9% |
|
Flintshire County Council |
7,790,476 |
155,442 |
22% |
7,940,999 |
150,523 |
1.9% |
|
Wrexham County Borough Council |
7,015,625 |
140,358 |
20% |
7,170,409 |
154,784 |
2.2% |
|
Total |
35,237,112 |
703,548 |
100% |
35,941,854 |
704,793 |
2% |
2020/2021 projected contributions from local authorities based on draft budget and must be considered in conjunction with risk and uncertainties outlined in the report.